Wire to Wire in the First Half of 2025

July 1, 2025 — Standing at the midpoint of 2025, it’s clear that global markets have been anything but ordinary. From DOGE-driven political movements pushing for aggressive government spending cuts, the most sweeping overhaul of global tariffs in decades, and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the first half of the year delivered a steady stream of market-moving developments. All of this played out against a backdrop of record budget deficits and a decelerating global economy. So how did markets respond? In this edition of Notes, we examine the first-half performance of key fixed income markets — highlighting steepening global yield curves, subdued inflation expectations in the US, and a notable absence of credit risk premium pricing.